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Fundamental, Technical and Market Sentiment Analysis In Forex Trading

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Fundamental, Technical and Market Sentiment Analysis In Forex Trading

Bài gửi by Admin on Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:36 pm



There are three different, basic ways of analyzing the Forex market. Analysis of the market is very important for knowing what you're doing and when you should trade a currency pair. Without good analytical skills you have no hope of making any significant money in the Forex market (or any market). But there are different ways of analyzing the Forex market in order to spot profitable trends and breakouts and trades as well as spot those times when you should cut your losses by getting out of a position, and for the placing of stop-loss orders.

The fundamental analysis approach involves evaluating a currency pair's movement that entails trying to measure its intrinsic profit value through the examination of related financial, economic, and other factors both qualitative and quantitative. Fundamental analysts try to look into everything that could possibly affect the currency pair's trade value, including world events, the overall economy, the economics and the politics of the nations represented by the currencies, and current trending.

Ultimately what the fundamental analyst is trying to determine is whether or not a currency is under-priced (which means, buy) or overpriced (which means short it, or sell it). The most often-applied strategy that comes from Forex fundamental analysis is the currency carry trade. Here, if you were using this strategy, you would sell a currency which is offering lower interest rates while buying a currency which offers a higher interest rate. The fundamental analysis approach is the opposite of the technical analysis approach.

Technical analysis means using charts to look at a currency pair's recent and historical price movements, trends, and resistance levels to attempt to anticipate approximately when a new trend will start. Technical analysts don't care about economic conditions or world events, their assumption is that over time the currency pair's trending remains repeatable and cyclical, albeit with some fluctuations. Technical analysts, you might say, take a statistical approach to Forex analysis.

Technical analysis is highly useful for trend trading, but its misapplication results in traders trying to predict and thus capitalize on new highs and lows, which is almost impossible. Technical traders tend to be very enamored of what are known as the Fibonacci indicators. Fibonacci numbers comprise a sequence of numbers with each successive number being the sum of the two preceding numbers. No-one knows why they work in Forex trend trading, but there is ample proof that they do. The four most popular Fibonacci trading strategies are arcs, fans, retracements, and time zones.

Those Forex traders who look to market sentiment analysis trade with regards to the fact that market sentiment is (or at least seems to be) the most important single factor that drives the prices of any market. Very simply, market sentiment involves"herd thought" so that, using contrarian philosophy, market sentiment analysis involves leveraging but not participating in that herd thought in order to generate profits. It is known that most traders make the same mistakes over and over and do emotional investing over and over again, while the contrarian understands that emotional investing rarely pays. But those who use market sentiment analysis are looking at what the vast majority of people are doing to drive currency pair prices.

Forex traders who use market sentiment analysis most commonly look to open interest. "Open interest" means the total number of contracts that have not been exercised on a given day. (It is not trading volume it is often mistaken for it.) To put it in very basic terms, open interest tends to increase when there is new money being poured into the Forex market, which indicates that speculators are betting more aggressively on the current market direction. This means that an increase in total open interest tends to support the current trend. Market sentiment analysis is clearly useful for trend trading, but it can also be used very effectively for swing trading.

The way you analyze the market should go hand in hand with your Forex trading strategies as well as your personal temperament.

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